Argentina's Polls Show Macri Leading but the Undecided Could Swing It
Argentina goes to the polls again in two weeks' time (on 22 November) to decide who takes over as President from Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner on 10 December.
Current polls suggest that Mauricio Macri has taken an 8% lead over the pro-Kirchner candidate, Daniel Scioli but there are still about 10% of voters who remain undecided - and their votes could be decisive. Significantly, President Kirchner has decided that she must do more to help Scioli, pulling out of the G20 talks in Turkey on 15-16 November to campaign on his behalf. Whether this will actually help him is questionable, since she remains unpopular in many quarters in Argentina.
Macri is riding high on a desire for change after four terms of Kirchnerism - and his pro-business policies aimed at turning around Argentina's stagnant economy may be attractive to many: he has also shown that he can appeal to Argentina's poor. Scioli, on the other hand, advances a more gradualist economic policy, holding on to many of the more populist reforms that the Kirchners introduced. Much depends, however, on how the 5 million or so voters that Massa has released into the pot will trend. Many of them come from a pro-Peronista background and may decide to vote on traditional lines. Massa has refused to back one candidate or the other.
The televised election debate on 15 November may be decisive.